Whichever way you look at it, April’s IPI numbers don’t give a whole lot of grounds for optimism. All the main components turned in negative growth (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):
The last time the indexes turned down this way, it led to flat/negative growth in the economy as a whole, which was in 3Q 2010 (index numbers; 2000=100):
The numbers suggests annual growth will slow again, to around 4.5%, while q-o-q growth (annualised) is going to show a negative growth of 2.5%.
Looks like growth this year will be as rocky as it was last year.
Technical Notes:
April 2011 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics
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